Risk Management
Risk Management »
Welcome to the BPEX Price Risk Management web area. Volatile grain prices have huge impacts on feed costs, so management of this volatility is key to business success. This web area aims to provide pig producers with an introduction to managing raw material costs using futures and options.
The graphs on this page ilustrate the current performance of these products in certain scenarios, but please explore the rest of this area to get a fuller insight.
For more information, please contact jack.watts@hgca.com
'Using futures to fix forward wheat price for Nov-12'
Chart.
Download as Excel
| Date | Price fixed via futures | Price | Initial Margin | Margin call | Total cash flow |
|---|
| 21 Feb 2012 | 159.30 | 149.75 | -12.40 | -9.55 | -21.95 |
| 20 Feb 2012 | 159.30 | 151.95 | -12.40 | -7.35 | -19.75 |
| 17 Feb 2012 | 159.30 | 149.50 | -12.40 | -9.80 | -22.20 |
| 16 Feb 2012 | 159.30 | 148.15 | -12.40 | -11.15 | -23.55 |
| 15 Feb 2012 | 159.30 | 147.75 | -12.40 | -11.55 | -23.95 |
| 14 Feb 2012 | 159.30 | 148.50 | -12.40 | -10.80 | -23.20 |
| 13 Feb 2012 | 159.30 | 145.75 | -12.40 | -13.55 | -25.95 |
| 10 Feb 2012 | 159.30 | 148.40 | -12.40 | -10.90 | -23.30 |
| 9 Feb 2012 | 159.30 | 149.50 | -12.40 | -9.80 | -22.20 |
| 8 Feb 2012 | 159.30 | 151.30 | -12.40 | -8.00 | -20.40 |
| 7 Feb 2012 | 159.30 | 153.00 | -12.40 | -6.30 | -18.70 |
| 6 Feb 2012 | 159.30 | 152.75 | -12.40 | -6.55 | -18.95 |
| 3 Feb 2012 | 159.30 | 152.00 | -12.40 | -7.30 | -19.70 |
| 2 Feb 2012 | 159.30 | 151.00 | -12.40 | -8.30 | -20.70 |
| 1 Feb 2012 | 159.30 | 152.00 | -12.40 | -7.30 | -19.70 |
| 31 Jan 2012 | 159.30 | 151.65 | -12.40 | -7.65 | -20.05 |
| 30 Jan 2012 | 159.30 | 150.00 | -12.40 | -9.30 | -21.70 |
| 27 Jan 2012 | 159.30 | 150.05 | -12.40 | -9.25 | -21.65 |
| 26 Jan 2012 | 159.30 | 149.25 | -12.40 | -10.05 | -22.45 |
| 25 Jan 2012 | 159.30 | 149.25 | -12.40 | -10.05 | -22.45 |
| 24 Jan 2012 | 159.30 | 149.75 | -12.40 | -9.55 | -21.95 |
| 23 Jan 2012 | 159.30 | 148.00 | -12.40 | -11.30 | -23.70 |
| 20 Jan 2012 | 159.30 | 146.90 | -12.40 | -12.40 | -24.80 |
| 19 Jan 2012 | 159.30 | 147.25 | -12.40 | -12.05 | -24.45 |
| 18 Jan 2012 | 159.30 | 146.40 | -12.40 | -12.90 | -25.30 |
| 17 Jan 2012 | 159.30 | 148.25 | -12.40 | -11.05 | -23.45 |
| 16 Jan 2012 | 159.30 | 146.65 | -12.40 | -12.65 | -25.05 |
| 13 Jan 2012 | 159.30 | 147.50 | -12.40 | -11.80 | -24.20 |
| 12 Jan 2012 | 159.30 | 146.00 | -12.40 | -13.30 | -25.70 |
| 11 Jan 2012 | 159.30 | 149.00 | -12.40 | -10.30 | -22.70 |
| 10 Jan 2012 | 159.30 | 148.75 | -12.40 | -10.55 | -22.95 |
| 9 Jan 2012 | 159.30 | 149.00 | -12.40 | -10.30 | -22.70 |
| 6 Jan 2012 | 159.30 | 146.25 | -12.40 | -13.05 | -25.45 |
| 5 Jan 2012 | 159.30 | 144.95 | -12.40 | -14.35 | -26.75 |
| 4 Jan 2012 | 159.30 | 146.75 | -12.40 | -12.55 | -24.95 |
| 3 Jan 2012 | 159.30 | 150.75 | -12.40 | -8.55 | -20.95 |
| 30 Dec 2011 | 159.30 | 149.75 | -12.40 | -9.55 | -21.95 |
| 29 Dec 2011 | 159.30 | 148.25 | -12.40 | -11.05 | -23.45 |
| 28 Dec 2011 | 159.30 | 147.00 | -12.40 | -12.30 | -24.70 |
| 23 Dec 2011 | 159.30 | 142.75 | -12.40 | -16.55 | -28.95 |
| 22 Dec 2011 | 159.30 | 142.50 | -12.40 | -16.80 | -29.20 |
| 21 Dec 2011 | 159.30 | 141.50 | -12.40 | -17.80 | -30.20 |
| 20 Dec 2011 | 159.30 | 141.25 | -12.40 | -18.05 | -30.45 |
| 19 Dec 2011 | 159.30 | 141.50 | -12.40 | -17.80 | -30.20 |
| 16 Dec 2011 | 159.30 | 139.45 | -12.40 | -19.85 | -32.25 |
| 15 Dec 2011 | 159.30 | 138.65 | -12.40 | -20.65 | -33.05 |
| 14 Dec 2011 | 159.30 | 137.80 | -12.40 | -21.50 | -33.90 |
| 13 Dec 2011 | 159.30 | 138.50 | -12.40 | -20.80 | -33.20 |
| 12 Dec 2011 | 159.30 | 137.75 | -12.40 | -21.55 | -33.95 |
| 9 Dec 2011 | 159.30 | 137.50 | -12.40 | -21.80 | -34.20 |
| 8 Dec 2011 | 159.30 | 139.10 | -12.40 | -20.20 | -32.60 |
| 7 Dec 2011 | 159.30 | 139.90 | -12.40 | -19.40 | -31.80 |
| 6 Dec 2011 | 159.30 | 140.00 | -12.40 | -19.30 | -31.70 |
| 5 Dec 2011 | 159.30 | 140.00 | -12.40 | -19.30 | -31.70 |
| 2 Dec 2011 | 159.30 | 139.25 | -12.40 | -20.05 | -32.45 |
| 1 Dec 2011 | 159.30 | 138.75 | -12.40 | -20.55 | -32.95 |
| 30 Nov 2011 | 159.30 | 138.50 | -12.40 | -20.80 | -33.20 |
| 29 Nov 2011 | 159.30 | 141.00 | -12.40 | -18.30 | -30.70 |
| 28 Nov 2011 | 159.30 | 140.00 | -12.40 | -19.30 | -31.70 |
| 25 Nov 2011 | 159.30 | 138.50 | -12.40 | -20.80 | -33.20 |
| 24 Nov 2011 | 159.30 | 136.75 | -12.40 | -22.55 | -34.95 |
| 23 Nov 2011 | 159.30 | 136.90 | -12.40 | -22.40 | -34.80 |
| 22 Nov 2011 | 159.30 | 139.50 | -12.40 | -19.80 | -32.20 |
| 21 Nov 2011 | 159.30 | 139.25 | -12.40 | -20.05 | -32.45 |
| 18 Nov 2011 | 159.30 | 140.25 | -12.40 | -19.05 | -31.45 |
| 17 Nov 2011 | 159.30 | 141.50 | -12.40 | -17.80 | -30.20 |
| 16 Nov 2011 | 159.30 | 143.00 | -12.40 | -16.30 | -28.70 |
| 15 Nov 2011 | 159.30 | 142.75 | -12.40 | -16.55 | -28.95 |
| 14 Nov 2011 | 159.30 | 143.25 | -12.40 | -16.05 | -28.45 |
| 11 Nov 2011 | 159.30 | 144.00 | -12.40 | -15.30 | -27.70 |
| 10 Nov 2011 | 159.30 | 145.00 | -12.40 | -14.30 | -26.70 |
| 9 Nov 2011 | 159.30 | 145.00 | -12.40 | -14.30 | -26.70 |
| 8 Nov 2011 | 159.30 | 145.30 | -12.40 | -14.00 | -26.40 |
| 7 Nov 2011 | 159.30 | 145.00 | -12.40 | -14.30 | -26.70 |
| 4 Nov 2011 | 159.30 | 144.90 | -12.40 | -14.40 | -26.80 |
| 3 Nov 2011 | 159.30 | 145.40 | -12.40 | -13.90 | -26.30 |
| 2 Nov 2011 | 159.30 | 143.50 | -12.40 | -15.80 | -28.20 |
| 1 Nov 2011 | 159.30 | 143.50 | -12.40 | -15.80 | -28.20 |
| 31 Oct 2011 | 159.30 | 144.95 | -12.40 | -14.35 | -26.75 |
| 28 Oct 2011 | 159.30 | 145.50 | -12.40 | -13.80 | -26.20 |
| 27 Oct 2011 | 159.30 | 145.25 | -12.40 | -14.05 | -26.45 |
| 26 Oct 2011 | 159.30 | 144.50 | -12.40 | -14.80 | -27.20 |
| 25 Oct 2011 | 159.30 | 145.90 | -12.40 | -13.40 | -25.80 |
| 24 Oct 2011 | 159.30 | 146.10 | -12.40 | -13.20 | -25.60 |
| 21 Oct 2011 | 159.30 | 144.75 | -12.40 | -14.55 | -26.95 |
| 20 Oct 2011 | 159.30 | 144.25 | -12.40 | -15.05 | -27.45 |
| 19 Oct 2011 | 159.30 | 145.00 | -12.40 | -14.30 | -26.70 |
| 18 Oct 2011 | 159.30 | 144.40 | -12.40 | -14.90 | -27.30 |
| 17 Oct 2011 | 159.30 | 144.25 | -12.40 | -15.05 | -27.45 |
| 14 Oct 2011 | 159.30 | 143.50 | -12.40 | -15.80 | -28.20 |
| 13 Oct 2011 | 159.30 | 142.50 | -12.40 | -16.80 | -29.20 |
| 12 Oct 2011 | 159.30 | 144.25 | -12.40 | -15.05 | -27.45 |
| 11 Oct 2011 | 159.30 | 147.70 | -12.40 | -11.60 | -24.00 |
| 10 Oct 2011 | 159.30 | 144.80 | -12.40 | -14.50 | -26.90 |
| 7 Oct 2011 | 159.30 | 144.45 | -12.40 | -14.85 | -27.25 |
| 6 Oct 2011 | 159.30 | 147.00 | -12.40 | -12.30 | -24.70 |
| 5 Oct 2011 | 159.30 | 144.50 | -12.40 | -14.80 | -27.20 |
| 4 Oct 2011 | 159.30 | 141.50 | -12.40 | -17.80 | -30.20 |
| 3 Oct 2011 | 159.30 | 143.00 | -12.40 | -16.30 | -28.70 |
| 30 Sep 2011 | 159.30 | 143.00 | -12.40 | -16.30 | -28.70 |
| 29 Sep 2011 | 159.30 | 147.50 | -12.40 | -11.80 | -24.20 |
| 28 Sep 2011 | 159.30 | 147.50 | -12.40 | -11.80 | -24.20 |
| 27 Sep 2011 | 159.30 | 149.90 | -12.40 | -9.40 | -21.80 |
| 26 Sep 2011 | 159.30 | 148.40 | -12.40 | -10.90 | -23.30 |
| 23 Sep 2011 | 159.30 | 148.20 | -12.40 | -11.10 | -23.50 |
| 22 Sep 2011 | 159.30 | 148.25 | -12.40 | -11.05 | -23.45 |
| 21 Sep 2011 | 159.30 | 152.50 | -12.40 | -6.80 | -19.20 |
| 20 Sep 2011 | 159.30 | 151.00 | -12.40 | -8.30 | -20.70 |
| 19 Sep 2011 | 159.30 | 149.00 | -12.40 | -10.30 | -22.70 |
| 16 Sep 2011 | 159.30 | 151.50 | -12.40 | -7.80 | -20.20 |
| 15 Sep 2011 | 159.30 | 150.50 | -12.40 | -8.80 | -21.20 |
| 14 Sep 2011 | 159.30 | 153.75 | -12.40 | -5.55 | -17.95 |
| 13 Sep 2011 | 159.30 | 152.50 | -12.40 | -6.80 | -19.20 |
| 12 Sep 2011 | 159.30 | 155.75 | -12.40 | -3.55 | -15.95 |
| 9 Sep 2011 | 159.30 | 157.00 | -12.40 | -2.30 | -14.70 |
| 8 Sep 2011 | 159.30 | 157.00 | -12.40 | -2.30 | -14.70 |
| 7 Sep 2011 | 159.30 | 157.90 | -12.40 | -1.40 | -13.80 |
| 6 Sep 2011 | 159.30 | 157.55 | -12.40 | -1.75 | -14.15 |
| 5 Sep 2011 | 159.30 | 157.50 | -12.40 | -1.80 | -14.20 |
| 2 Sep 2011 | 159.30 | 159.40 | -12.40 | .09 | -12.30 |
| 1 Sep 2011 | 159.30 | 159.30 | -12.40 | .00 | -12.40 |
Performance of £138.75/t strike Put Option for Nov-12, purchased on 01-Dec-2011 @£12.75/t
Chart.
Download as Excel
| Date | Nov-12' futures | Call option strike price | Call option premium | Maximum wheat price using option (£/t) | Current wheat price using option (£/t) | Wheat price if the market falls to £120/t (£/t) |
|---|
| 21 Feb 2012 | 149.75 | 138.75 | 12.75 | 151.50 | 151.50 | 132.75 |
| 20 Feb 2012 | 151.95 | 138.75 | 12.75 | 151.50 | 151.50 | 132.75 |
| 17 Feb 2012 | 149.50 | 138.75 | 12.75 | 151.50 | 151.50 | 132.75 |
| 16 Feb 2012 | 148.15 | 138.75 | 12.75 | 151.50 | 151.50 | 132.75 |
| 15 Feb 2012 | 147.75 | 138.75 | 12.75 | 151.50 | 151.50 | 132.75 |
| 14 Feb 2012 | 148.50 | 138.75 | 12.75 | 151.50 | 151.50 | 132.75 |
| 13 Feb 2012 | 145.75 | 138.75 | 12.75 | 151.50 | 151.50 | 132.75 |
| 10 Feb 2012 | 148.40 | 138.75 | 12.75 | 151.50 | 151.50 | 132.75 |
| 9 Feb 2012 | 149.50 | 138.75 | 12.75 | 151.50 | 151.50 | 132.75 |
| 8 Feb 2012 | 151.30 | 138.75 | 12.75 | 151.50 | 151.50 | 132.75 |
| 7 Feb 2012 | 153.00 | 138.75 | 12.75 | 151.50 | 151.50 | 132.75 |
| 6 Feb 2012 | 152.75 | 138.75 | 12.75 | 151.50 | 151.50 | 132.75 |
| 3 Feb 2012 | 152.00 | 138.75 | 12.75 | 151.50 | 151.50 | 132.75 |
| 2 Feb 2012 | 151.00 | 138.75 | 12.75 | 151.50 | 151.50 | 132.75 |
| 1 Feb 2012 | 152.00 | 138.75 | 12.75 | 151.50 | 151.50 | 132.75 |
| 31 Jan 2012 | 151.65 | 138.75 | 12.75 | 151.50 | 151.50 | 132.75 |
| 30 Jan 2012 | 150.00 | 138.75 | 12.75 | 151.50 | 151.50 | 132.75 |
| 27 Jan 2012 | 150.05 | 138.75 | 12.75 | 151.50 | 151.50 | 132.75 |
| 26 Jan 2012 | 149.25 | 138.75 | 12.75 | 151.50 | 151.50 | 132.75 |
| 25 Jan 2012 | 149.25 | 138.75 | 12.75 | 151.50 | 151.50 | 132.75 |
| 24 Jan 2012 | 149.75 | 138.75 | 12.75 | 151.50 | 151.50 | 132.75 |
| 23 Jan 2012 | 148.00 | 138.75 | 12.75 | 151.50 | 151.50 | 132.75 |
| 20 Jan 2012 | 146.90 | 138.75 | 12.75 | 151.50 | 151.50 | 132.75 |
| 19 Jan 2012 | 147.25 | 138.75 | 12.75 | 151.50 | 151.50 | 132.75 |
| 18 Jan 2012 | 146.40 | 138.75 | 12.75 | 151.50 | 151.50 | 132.75 |
| 17 Jan 2012 | 148.25 | 138.75 | 12.75 | 151.50 | 151.50 | 132.75 |
| 16 Jan 2012 | 146.65 | 138.75 | 12.75 | 151.50 | 151.50 | 132.75 |
| 13 Jan 2012 | 147.50 | 138.75 | 12.75 | 151.50 | 151.50 | 132.75 |
| 12 Jan 2012 | 146.00 | 138.75 | 12.75 | 151.50 | 151.50 | 132.75 |
| 11 Jan 2012 | 149.00 | 138.75 | 12.75 | 151.50 | 151.50 | 132.75 |
| 10 Jan 2012 | 148.75 | 138.75 | 12.75 | 151.50 | 151.50 | 132.75 |
| 9 Jan 2012 | 149.00 | 138.75 | 12.75 | 151.50 | 151.50 | 132.75 |
| 6 Jan 2012 | 146.25 | 138.75 | 12.75 | 151.50 | 151.50 | 132.75 |
| 5 Jan 2012 | 144.95 | 138.75 | 12.75 | 151.50 | 151.50 | 132.75 |
| 4 Jan 2012 | 146.75 | 138.75 | 12.75 | 151.50 | 151.50 | 132.75 |
| 3 Jan 2012 | 150.75 | 138.75 | 12.75 | 151.50 | 151.50 | 132.75 |
| 30 Dec 2011 | 149.75 | 138.75 | 12.75 | 151.50 | 151.50 | 132.75 |
| 29 Dec 2011 | 148.25 | 138.75 | 12.75 | 151.50 | 151.50 | 132.75 |
| 28 Dec 2011 | 147.00 | 138.75 | 12.75 | 151.50 | 151.50 | 132.75 |
| 23 Dec 2011 | 142.75 | 138.75 | 12.75 | 151.50 | 151.50 | 132.75 |
| 22 Dec 2011 | 142.50 | 138.75 | 12.75 | 151.50 | 151.50 | 132.75 |
| 21 Dec 2011 | 141.50 | 138.75 | 12.75 | 151.50 | 151.50 | 132.75 |
| 20 Dec 2011 | 141.25 | 138.75 | 12.75 | 151.50 | 151.50 | 132.75 |
| 19 Dec 2011 | 141.50 | 138.75 | 12.75 | 151.50 | 151.50 | 132.75 |
| 16 Dec 2011 | 139.45 | 138.75 | 12.75 | 151.50 | 151.50 | 132.75 |
| 15 Dec 2011 | 138.65 | 138.75 | 12.75 | 151.50 | 151.40 | 132.75 |
| 14 Dec 2011 | 137.80 | 138.75 | 12.75 | 151.50 | 150.55 | 132.75 |
| 13 Dec 2011 | 138.50 | 138.75 | 12.75 | 151.50 | 151.25 | 132.75 |
| 12 Dec 2011 | 137.75 | 138.75 | 12.75 | 151.50 | 150.50 | 132.75 |
| 9 Dec 2011 | 137.50 | 138.75 | 12.75 | 151.50 | 150.25 | 132.75 |
| 8 Dec 2011 | 139.10 | 138.75 | 12.75 | 151.50 | 151.50 | 132.75 |
| 7 Dec 2011 | 139.90 | 138.75 | 12.75 | 151.50 | 151.50 | 132.75 |
| 6 Dec 2011 | 140.00 | 138.75 | 12.75 | 151.50 | 151.50 | 132.75 |
| 5 Dec 2011 | 140.00 | 138.75 | 12.75 | 151.50 | 151.50 | 132.75 |
| 2 Dec 2011 | 139.25 | 138.75 | 12.75 | 151.50 | 151.50 | 132.75 |
| 1 Dec 2011 | 138.75 | 138.75 | 12.75 | 151.50 | 151.50 | 132.75 |